Choosing a technology/framework/dependency and longevity matters. Use the heuristic that for non-perishable things, expected remaining life is proportional to current age — favor the proven.
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Choosing a technology/framework/dependency and longevity matters. Use the heuristic that for non-perishable things, expected remaining life is proportional to current age — favor the proven.
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thinking-lindy-effect.SKILL.md
---name: thinking-lindy-effect
description: Choosing a technology/framework/dependency and longevity matters. Use the heuristic that for non-perishable things, expected remaining life is proportional to current age — favor the proven.
---# The Lindy Effect
## Overview
The Lindy Effect, named after a New York deli where comedians discussed career longevity, states that for non-perishable things (ideas, technologies, books, practices), future life expectancy is proportional to current age. If a technology has survived 20 years, it's likely to survive another 20. If it's survived 2 years, expect another 2.
**Core Principle:** Time is the ultimate test. Old things that still exist have proven their value; new things are still being tested.
## When to Use
- Technology selection (languages, frameworks, databases)
- Evaluating libraries and dependencies
- Predicting tool longevity
- Career skill investment
- Methodology and practice adoption
- Architectural patterns
- Vendor/product selection
Decision flow:
```
Choosing between options?
→ Are some options significantly older? → yes → APPLY LINDY HEURISTIC
→ Is longevity important for this choice? → yes → FAVOR OLDER, PROVEN OPTIONS
→ Is the new thing solving a new problem? → yes → NEW MIGHT BE APPROPRIATE
- **Not for perishable things** — specific SaaS vendors, individual products, hardware, fashion-driven choices. Age predicts survival only for non-perishable ideas/technologies/practices.
- **Not when a paradigm shift is underway.** Lindy holds *within* a stable paradigm; a discontinuity (cloud, LLMs) can make the old thing's age irrelevant. If the ground is moving, age is not evidence.
- **Not as a tiebreaker for short-lived/experimental work** where longevity doesn't matter — pick on fit, not age.
- **Don't read Lindy as "old = best."** Survival predicts further survival; it does not say the old option is optimal for a *new* requirement. The burden of proof is on the new — but the new can meet it.
## Trigger Card
When choosing a technology, framework, or dependency and longevity matters:
1. **Check the age** — how long has this option survived? For non-perishable things (ideas, technologies, institutions), expected remaining life is proportional to current age.
2. **Verify it's non-perishable** — is the option subject to rapid obsolescence (JS framework) or cumulative knowledge (database, language, protocol)? Lindy only applies to the latter.
3. **Favor the proven over the new** — let the new option carry the burden of proof. Pick the older option unless the new one demonstrates a clear, necessary advantage.
Skip for short-lived/experimental work where longevity doesn't matter. "Old" isn't automatically "best" — survival predicts further survival, not optimality for a new requirement.
Rationale: [Why this balances Lindy with requirements]
## Risk if Lindy is Wrong
[What happens if the non-Lindy option outlasts expectations?]
```
## Verification Checklist
- [ ] Identified age of all options
- [ ] Applied Lindy heuristic to estimate longevity
- [ ] Distinguished perishable from non-perishable
- [ ] Considered paradigm shift possibilities
- [ ] Checked if newer options solve genuinely new problems
- [ ] Balanced Lindy with specific requirements
- [ ] Documented reasoning
## Key Questions
- "How long has this technology/practice existed?"
- "Is this Lindy (non-perishable) or perishable?"
- "What's the Lindy expectation for each option?"
- "Is the newer option solving a problem that didn't exist before?"
- "Am I betting against Lindy? If so, why?"
- "What's proven vs. what's hyped?"
## Taleb's Wisdom
"If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years."
"Technology is at its best when it is invisible."
The technologies you don't think about—TCP/IP, Unix, SQL—are the most Lindy. The technologies that demand constant attention are still being tested.
"The old is to be respected; the new is to be examined."
Lindy doesn't mean reject the new. It means: the burden of proof is on the new. New must demonstrate value; old has already demonstrated survival.
